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元帅

无敌 发表在  2011-3-27 07:34:12  | 显示全部楼层 | 阅读模式
Let us consider a hypothetical situation. Consider the case that you had every cashback/miles/points Credit Card possible. How would you maximize the value of rewards on your spending? This is a complicated question and requires detailed analysis of various credit cards along with the valuation of various miles/points that these cards award. I realize every person might assign different values to miles and points. Nonetheless, to get a reasonably accurate analysis, it is imperative to assign some value (Cent Value – CV) to all mileage and point currencies out there. In the first of the three part analysis, I will try to evaluate all such currencies with a common metric. This will be followed by an extensive research on all credit cards worth our attention. Finally, in the third part, I will analyze the cards considered in Part II based on the valuations in this part.
Value of airline miles
This is a tricky question. I am sure many of you would say that you can redeem about 200k miles in J/F for a round the world itinerary that would have cost at least $20K; giving a 10 cent valuation per mile.
However I value my miles differently. I first calculate the actual dollar price of the itinerary I am about to redeem for, in the cheapest class (that is what I would have paid for!). Let this be P. Now the award flight I am planning to take won’t earn any miles. So I am potentially losing out on say L miles. Now consider the award cost to be A miles and T surcharges+taxes. So, I calculate the net value of the miles used as,
Cent Value (CV) = ((Price(P)-Surcharges (T))/(Award Miles (A)+Miles Lost (L)))*100
After doing this calculation, I can assure you, you would seldom get a value of more than 1.5 cents per mile. This is why unroadwarrior has blogged earlier that the best use of award miles is for tickets of your family and friends who are not frequent flyers.
With respect to the valuation, I must say I find Aeroplan and Alaska miles the most valuable (more than 1.5 cents per mile). Aeroplan has perhaps the most lenient of routing rules and Alaska is the ‘slut of the skies’; it has so many partners in Oneworld and Skyteam, you can almost always use their miles for reward on any route. I would be blogging about that on that in a later post.
However, the whole purpose of the mumbo-jumbo of the CV calculation was to prove my belief that most miles are valued at ~1.5 cents. Note that this valuation is only to compare the value of miles with direct cashback. One can of course never assign precise monetary value to the difference in flying experience between economy, business and first.
I must note however, I find it hard to assign Delta Skymiles a value at par with other miles currencies. It is extremely difficult to get much value out of Delta Skymiles. Though personally I haven’t redeemed Skymiles for less than a Cent Value (CV) of 2 cent per mile, I wouldn’t give Delta miles a CV of more than 1 cent per mile.
So, to summarize,
All airline miles except Delta: 1.5 cents
Delta Skymiles: 1 cent
Other Related Programs
Membership Reward Points: 2 cents
The flexibility of transferring to a number of airlines ensures that you get the best value for your point. I would not value them less than 2 cents/point.
Value of Hotel points
This is relatively straightforward. But again, relative values may differ from person to person. Loyalty Traveler has an excellent commentary on the general range of values for various hotel points. Nevertheless, to compare the value of hotel points earned from credit cards with direct cashback, it is imperative to assign fixed values to the hotel points.
For my analysis, would invoke the same argument as for airline miles to assign CV to all point currencies. Let the price of the cheapest hotel room be P and the points you would have earned on it be L. Let the cost of the award be A points and T taxes. Again:
Cent Value (CV) = ((Price(P)-Award Taxes(T))/(Award Points (A)+Points Lost (L)))*100
The best part of hotel awards is that there are no costly taxes and surcharges (T). Nerdwallet estimates the value of various hotel points by averaging over several redemptions. However, they neglect the value of points lost (L) in their analysis. I have tried to assign CV to all relevant hotel points taking into account the points lost (L). In essence, Nerdwallet’s CV is (P/A)*100 while my CV is (P/(A+L))*100.
A few assumptions
1.
To calculate L/P, I have neglected any status bonuses unless the related credit card program comes with a complimentary status. For example, Hilton Amex and Priority Club Visa cardmembers get complimentary Silver and Gold status respectively.
2.
I have neglected promotion bonuses unless it is always available. For example, Hilton Amex members get 500 bonus points per booking.
3.
The value of L includes the bonus points that you would have earned with the hotel co-branded credit card.
I have included analysis results for the various hotel chains based on Nerdwallet’s point valuation. My personal is different in most cases.
Hotel Reward Program
Cent Value (CV)
Starwood Preferred Guest
2.1
Hilton HHonors
0.5
Priority club
0.6
Hyatt Gold Passport
1.3
Marriot Rewards
0.9
Wyndham Rewards
0.6
Best Western Rewards
0.5
Choice Rewards
0.8
La Quinta Returns
0.8
The details of the analysis for various hotel reward programs are as follows:
Starwood Preferred Guest (SPG): 2.1 cents
Nerdwallet value: 2.3 cents
Points Lost per $ price (L/P)= 2(Base) +2(Amex)=4
The Nomad’s calculation: 2.1 cents
The Nomad’s personal valuation: 3.5-4 cents
Hilton HHonors: 0.5 cents
Nerdwallet value: 0.5 cents
Points Lost per $ price (L/P)=10(Base)+5(Myway bonus)+1.5(Silver Bonus)+ 6(Amex)+500(per booking) ~ 27
The Nomad’s calculation: 0.45 cents
The Nomad’s personal valuation: 0.6-0.8 cents
Note: Stays at Home2 Suites earn only 5 Base points per $. They are excluded from estimation.
Priority club (PC): 0.6 cents
Nerdwallet value: 0.6 cents
Points Lost per $ price (L/P)= 10(Base) +1(Gold Bonus)+5(Visa)=16
The Nomad’s calculation: 0.55 cents
The Nomad’s personal valuation: 0.6-0.8 cents
Note: Stays at Staybridge and Candlewood Suites earn 5 base points per $.
Hyatt Gold Passport: 1.3 cents
Nerdwallet value: 1.5 cents
Points Lost per $ price (L/P)= 5(Base) +0.75(Platinum Bonus)+3(Visa)=8.75
The Nomad’s calculation: 1.33 cents
The Nomad’s personal valuation: 1.25-2 cents
Marriot Rewards: 0.9 cents
Nerdwallet value: 1.0 cents
Points Lost per $ price (L/P)= 10(Base) +3(Visa)=13
The Nomad’s calculation: 0.88 cents
The Nomad’s personal valuation: 0.8-1.2 cents
Note: Only 5 Base points per $ at Residence Inn, TownePlace Suites .
Wyndham Rewards: 0.6 cents
Nerdwallet value: 0.6 cents
Points Lost per $ price (L/P)= 10(Base) +3(Visa)=13
The Nomad’s calculation: 0.55 cents
The Nomad’s personal valuation: 0.6 cents
Note: Only 5 Base points per $ at Hawthorn Suites .
Best Western Rewards: 0.5 cents
Nerdwallet value: 0.6 cents
Points Lost per $ price (L/P)= 10(Base) +15(Mastercard)=25
The Nomad’s calculation: 0.5 cents
The Nomad’s personal valuation: 0.5-0.7 cents
Choice Rewards: 0.8 cents
Nerdwallet value: 0.8 cents
Points Lost per $ price (L/P)= 10(Base) +1(Gold Bonus)+15(Visa)=26
The Nomad’s calculation: 0.66 cents
The Nomad’s personal valuation: 0.7-1.0 cents
La Quinta Returns: 0.8 cents
Nerdwallet value: 0.9 cents
Points Lost per $ price (L/P)= 10(Base) +5(Visa)=15
The Nomad’s calculation: 0.8 cents
The Nomad’s personal valuation: 0.8-0.9 cents
Feedback
The reason I am breaking my post into three parts is to get feedback from you regarding my valuation. If you disagree with any of my valuations, please let me know. I would take that into account and modify the values if required. I must reiterate that the cent value (CV) of various miles and points would be used to determine which cards give the best returns in various spending categories. Hence it is imperative to get the CV of each program in the right ballpark.
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ariesleo + 10 ~
luck_73 + 10

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United: 1K, AA: PE, Air France: Platinum, SAS: Gold, Starwood: Platinum, Marriott: Platinum, Hilton: Gold, Carlson: Gold, Best Western: Platinum

黑钻会员 鲜花(300)

老蔡 发表于 2011-3-27 10:37:11  | 显示全部楼层
这不是那谁博客上写的么~~我记得我读过
@俺是老蔡  http://weibo.com/mylaocai

蓝钻会员 鲜花(4)

cloudzyh 发表于 2011-3-27 11:34:13  | 显示全部楼层
不错,HH的积分比我想象的值钱些。
HU:G; CA:S; HH Diamond;IHG: P
W

蓝钻会员 鲜花(5)

W 发表于 2011-3-27 11:40:23  | 显示全部楼层
我觉得这个估值整体上来说还是比较准确的
各种D各种P,都是浮云。

空乘 鲜花(234)

元帅

无敌 发表于 2011-3-27 15:16:09  | 显示全部楼层
回复 老蔡 的帖子

所以我写的是转啊。
United: 1K, AA: PE, Air France: Platinum, SAS: Gold, Starwood: Platinum, Marriott: Platinum, Hilton: Gold, Carlson: Gold, Best Western: Platinum

钻石会员 鲜花(2)

smalljunior 发表于 2011-3-27 21:29:12  | 显示全部楼层
能上个中文版本么?

蓝钻会员 鲜花(36)

phpaper 发表于 2011-3-28 11:15:51  | 显示全部楼层
超有用!!

黑钻会员 鲜花(482)

lngjw 发表于 2011-3-28 12:21:10  | 显示全部楼层
航空里程那段不知道靠不靠谱,酒店那段应该还可以...
9#
无效楼层,该帖已经被删除

白金会员 鲜花(0)

xyzh 发表于 2011-3-29 00:07:59  | 显示全部楼层
还是sp值钱

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onlyou 发表于 2011-3-29 00:44:58  | 显示全部楼层
SPG不好挣吧
http://www.wieistmeineip.de/ip-address/?size=468x60 http://www.wieistmeineip.de/ip-address/?size=468x60

蓝钻会员 鲜花(23)

ariesleo 发表于 2011-3-29 03:57:57  | 显示全部楼层
回复 onlyou 的帖子


SPG好挣。 你要是金卡或白金,配合SPG AMEX卡用,住SPG店的时候,1刀给5点。然后有优惠的时候,比如双倍积分,那点数就更多了
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无敌 + 10 hehe

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